Updates: Thai Politics

Interesting Times..

As you may have read, the political scene in Thailand is as hot as ever. Former PM Thaksin has jumped bail and taken refuge in the UK from where he continues to try to influence things here. Although he hasn’t managed to get his Thai assets unfrozen, he’s managed to turn a healthy profit on his Manchester City transactions. £50million or so in a year isn’t bad and should keep him in comfort while he plots his return. It must have been a shock when the courts handed out guilty verdicts to his wife and associates over their fraudulent land deal, and show every sign of hammering him too for his various alleged offences. Meanwhile, his lawyer is in jail for a particularly inept attempt to influence court officials with a 2million baht (£35,000) lunchbox.

The Foreign Minister (a Thaksin man, who gave him back his diplomatic passport, despite the ongoing corruption investigations) was forced to resign over his agreement to a proposal by Cambodia to nominate Preah Viharn as a World Heritage site. Preah Viharn is a Khmer temple on the Thai Cambodian border, whose ownership has been in dispute for years. Tension in border areas rose and soldiers were mobilised, but fortunately no shots were fired and the pressure seems to be subsiding now that everybody has got what they want from it. It was a useful political tool for the Cambodians at election time, and was also used by the Thai opposition as a rallying point against Samak’s government. The suspicion was that the agreement was good for the business interests in Cambodia of a certain person (Guess who? The name begins with T). Whether the accusation has any substance doesn’t matter, because in the current climate some Thais are ready to believe any allegation, true or not.

Current PM Samak is having a tough time too. The Popular Alliance for Democracy (PAD) which protested against Thaksin and eventually unseated him, has also been having a go at the current government, and Samak in particular. They have been demonstrating for several months and recently upped the stakes by invading Government House. They are still camped outside in a sea of mud because of the recent heavy rain - like Glastonbury without the music and toilets, but with good Thai food from vendors, who never miss an opportunity, and other supporters, many of them from the educated Bangkok middle classes. They also invaded the government TV station, accusing it of bias, and managed to close several regional airports, including Phuket, stranding 15,000+ passengers for day or two.

While PAD demonstrations in the south have been reasonably unopposed, a month ago, one in Udon Thani in the north east turned nasty when government supporters clashed with the PAD. One man was killed and many others wounded. Government supporters also started their own pro-government demonstrations in Bangkok and there was the potential for real trouble. Meanwhile Samak had been alternately threatening action against the PAD and then currying praise for his softly-softly approach, which has been forced on him because it appears the army is not with him. Without the backing of the army, who very sensibly say this is a political problem, and should be sorted out by political means, the police have been very restrained and Samak has appeared powerless.

He has so far resisted all attempts to make him resign because of this political strife, but he was forced to resign yesterday because, after becoming PM, he broke the rules by continuing to appear on a couple of TV cookery programmes which he has hosted for many years. Unfortunately the rules don’t disqualify him from standing again, so the expectation is that he will be re-appointed tomorrow by the ruling coalition. (One alternative appears to be Thaksin’s brother in law, but that won’t satisfy the PAD either.) This temporary setback is unlikely to deter him from continuing on his present path, which is leading the country into paralysis.

The Thais are faced with very uncomfortable choices: the current government, which for all its faults was at least democratically elected or the Popular Alliance for Democracy, which is not a political party, but a loose grouping, one of whose stated purposes is to reduce democracy because they claim that most Thais are not sophisticated enough to understand what it’s all about and will therefore vote where the money is, leading to institutionalised corruption. They may be right, but it’s not a very progressive attitude and doesn’t bode well for Thai politics in the future.

Samak’s coalition won the election with a thumping majority, giving the ruling Bangkok elite and the army a bloody nose in the process, because essentially, the government is Thai Rak Thai under another name, but without Thaksin. The coup in September 2006 therefore changed very little apart from getting rid of Thaksin himself.

However, the short-lived coup government did initiate anti-corruption investigations which have been grinding on remorselessly. This committee has been beavering away, resisting attempts to deflect it from its course and the courts have handed out guilty verdicts to those who are deemed to have misbehaved, which of course includes the T family.

Samak’s government has been trying to change the constitution to make these investigations unlawful so that Mr T can have all his money back, and so that over 100 politicians can re-enter politics despite vote-buying and other illegal electoral activities.

The PPP (Samak’s party) draws its support mainly from the north and northeast (T country). The PAD is supported mainly by the Bangkok educated classes and the south. The south has for many years been Democrat country. The Democrats are almost invisible at the moment despite having a very well-spoken Oxford-educated leader. They crop up in the papers occasionally, and have a substantial but insufficient number of seats in parliament, but the headlines have been grabbed by the PAD and Samak.

There seems to me to be a real danger of an even more divided country if Samak is re-appointed. One of the main aims of the PAD is to get rid of him so they will almost certainly continue to protest, with the prospect of violence between opposing groups of supporters. The time may come when the army is forced to step in to maintain civil order.

So, to summarise, the Thais have an elected government considered by many of being a front for Mr T, which might be forced out by an unelected group protesting against corruption and everything to do with Mr T, and which is openly advocating a less democratic system.

The economy has been badly hit by all the political uncertainty. For example the closure of the airports led to a flurry of cancellations by tourists, who just want their fortnight on the beaches and in the bars, without the risk of wasted days stuck at airports. We read today that tourist arrivals have dropped by 70%. The PAD and the government both seem intent on killing the goose which lays the golden eggs.

We just hope that a middle way can be found to restore peace and stability.